Varial is a fundamental forecasting and valuation platform for the National Electricity Market. We forecast prices, shape volumes and value books, and we do it all in one connected platform.
The problem we solve
Forecasting the NEM usually means trusting a black box. A model hands you a number, and when your board or your desk asks how it got there, or what happens if gas runs 20% higher, you're stuck. The assumptions are buried, and the tools for price, volume and value rarely talk to each other, so you spend more time reconciling spreadsheets than backing a call.
We built Varial the other way around. We show our working, so every number traces back to an assumption you can see, and we give you the flexibility to easily vary away from the consultant status quo view if you like. Price, volume and value sit together, and every forecast can run across several scenarios and sensitivities, so you get a range, not a single point.
The result is a forecast you can trust, defend, and make your own.
There's a deeper problem that undermines the value of a forecast from a commercial lens: equilibrium models. They assume a smooth, steady-state set of input assumptions on an optimised least-cost output solve - something that unintentionally turns users off the results on first impression: it's not realistic. We take a different path. Weather years and other real, traceable sources of volatility are built into the model, with no randomness, so the range you see reflects how the market actually behaves, not a theoretical steady state.
Our products
Two core products, one connected platform.
Fundamental NEM price forecasts. Build your own, or use the Varial house view.
Value any book against any forecast, position by position and whole-of-book.
Two support tools round them out. Positions lets you define any position, physical, financial or retail load, and shape the volumes Spot and VAR price and value. Revert is the free companion to all of it: live market data, news and trend analysis to inform your view of what's ahead.
Because Spot and VAR both run fully fundamental across scenarios and weather years, the range they give you is your risk view. Together they help you manage that risk and diversify your portfolio for long-term stability.
VAR also lets you run sensitivities on a single position: flex the capacity, the storage duration, the start date, the strike escalation on a contract, whatever the deal hinges on, and see the revalued result in minutes, not weeks.
And when you're ready to act on it, our optimisation tools take your current portfolio and the products available in the market to find the trades that maximise earnings and minimise risk, subject to your own risk limits and appetite.
What we stand for
- Honesty
- Every number traces back to an assumption you can see.
- Consistency
- The same outputs for the same inputs, applied across every deal type.
- Completeness
- Merchant and contract, the full value chain, valued together.
- Accessibility
- Web-based, fast, and easy to use.
Who it's for
Varial is built for analysts and decision makers alike, the people who turn market complexity into a view their team can defend. Whatever your seat, trading desk, investor, developer or regulator, Varial helps you think like a trader: price the market, value your position, and back your call with numbers.
It makes forecasting feel real. You get a realistic range of outcomes without the hassle: we've done all the data wrangling, and added our commercial modelling layer on top, built on years of price forecasting and hundreds of deals valued for real trading teams.
What next?
Our goal isn't to keep you dependent on us. It's to set you up to go it alone, with tools and information you can trust. A few ways to go deeper: