The Sniff Test
A practical electricity price forecast check against AEMO, ASX and market evidence.
These are snapshots of the basic charts worth checking every quarter. See our full free Spot forecast for more examples.
Hold your forecaster accountable. Everyone wins when the forecast improves.
Loading interactive charts…
Annual flat
Consultants forecast merchant spot prices; ASX contracts usually carry an insurance premium. ASX is a sense check, not the truth, and these quotes are nominal against real June 2026 forecasts.
Energy and volatility
Does the energy component and the $300+ tail tell a consistent story?
Quarterly flat
Do the seasonal turns agree with observed quarters and quoted base futures?
Time of day
Is the daily shape plausible as supply and demand change?
Price duration
Each year ranks spot prices from highest to lowest. More VRE can mean more near-zero hours, while storage may absorb some deep negatives; check how the forecast treats both ends.
Wind and solar capture (% of flat)
Technology price divided by the same region's annual flat price. History uses realised dispatch; the forecast uses available-resource weighting. Regional averages are useful for a quick sniff test, but DUID- or REZ-specific capture rates are what you need for targeted asset decisions.
Daily spreads
Compare 1h, 2h, 4h and 8h daily spreads across NSW, QLD, SA and VIC.
